Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles
Methods for continuously monitoring business cycles are compared. A turn in a leading index can be used to predict a turn in the business cycle. Three likelihood based methods for turning point detection are compared in detail by using the theory of statistical surveillance and by simulations. One of the methods is a parametric likelihood ratio method. Another includes a non-parametric estimati...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
سال: 2004
ISSN: 1729-3626
DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art6-en